Week 15 NFL Preview: 4pm Games to Combat Seasonal Depression With
On wanting everyone to win, family drama, and showing up when it counts.
Happy weekend everyone! Lots of fun games to dig into as we round out this NFL season that has felt both very short and very, very, long to be writing about twice a week. Wouldn’t trade it for the world, though! As always, subscribe and share with all you hold near and dear.
Now that the regular season is in its final few weeks, the games that truly matter are both dwindling in number but heating up in content. This week, we have three games, all randomly at 4:25pm EST, that feature either two potential Super Bowl teams or have big stakes as it regards to the playoff race. So, I’ll be diving in depth to all three of the week’s Big Games. Without further ado:
The Big Games
The “I Wish Both Teams Could Win” Bowl:
Buffalo Bills (10-3) at Detroit Lions (12-1), Sunday 4:25pm EST
Setting the Scene:
As the season rounds into its final quarter and potential Super Bowl matchups are starting to take shape, one possible outcome seems to be the favorite among fans and media alike: a Buffalo Bills versus Detroit Lions championship game. It’s easy to understand why people want to see this happen. Neither team has won a Super Bowl in its franchise history, they both come from small or underappreciated cities, and both have come close recently to getting there.
I’m going to say something controversial here, though, in that in a perfect world I actually don’t want to see this matchup. It’s not because I don’t want to see one of these teams win, rather, it would break my heart to see either of them lose. A good Super Bowl should include some matchup of good versus evil, scrappy underdog versus perennial powerhouse, fans who have waited perhaps generations for success versus those who have been luxuriating in it for years. Both of these teams and fanbases deserve a win.
Despite being a Jets fan, I am still a daughter of Upstate New York, and thus feel an important solidarity with Bills Mafia and she all represents. I’ve watched the heartbreaking losses to the Chiefs, I know the history of their four consecutive lost Super Bowls, I’ve been to Wegmans and I love Wegmans. On the other hand, the Lions are the easiest team in football to root for. Their decades of ineptitude not only mean that this win would be all the more sweet for them, but also represent a larger truth that my team that has been wandering in the wilderness for 40 days and nights may one day win a championship themselves.
While this game particularly holds little stakes as far as playoff races go—both just need to keep winning games if they want to be the number one overall seed in their respective conferences—it’s hard not to be excited about it. Buffalo and Detroit have not just been two of the best teams in the league, but two of the most fun teams to watch. Detroit has shown that they can do basically whatever they want on offense to anyone at any time. The Lions have scored over 40 points four times this season, twice more than any other team this season. The Bills have also been an offensive powerhouse—they scored 42 points in a loss to the Rams last week—but largely thanks to the unique efforts and production of quarterback Josh Allen, who is the current and rightful frontrunner for the MVP award.
In this way, these two teams that share abundantly good energy differ dramatically, and offer us an interesting study in how to construct a championship-caliber team. Jared Goff has been very good for the Lions—he’s far exceeded the expectations that a rational person would’ve had for him when he was traded to Detroit—but he’s not in the same tier of quarterback as Allen. He’s accurate, decisive, and rarely makes back-breaking mistakes, but lacks the athleticism and creativity that separates very good players from truly elite ones. This has been fine, clearly, for the Lions offense, who surrounds Goff with talent. The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in football, two excellent running backs, and an above-average receiving corps with a legitimate number one option in Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Where the Lions built an offense meant to elevate the skills of their talented but limited quarterback, the Bills have an entire offense in Josh Allen. I mean that almost literally—Allen scored a mind-boggling six total touchdowns last week, three via pass and three he ran in on his own. The talent around him isn’t bad, but with the exception of Allen himself, there is no unit on the Bills offense that I would say is better than Detroit’s.
At present, the consensus seems to be that you’d rather be in the Bills position than in the Lions. When one player is able to move the needle so much that you can contend with anyone year-to-year, you don’t need everything else to go right in the same ways. However, what the Lions have been able to do over the past two years is a case for the fact that teams can win without having their own Godzilla throwing the ball. It suggests a possible new model for team building in a ballooning quarterback market: find a quarterback who is good enough to not lose you games, keep them upright behind a good offensive line, and find the right players for him to play pitch and catch with.
The stakes:
For a game as juicy as this one, the literally stakes are not particularly intriguing. The Lions are currently in first place in the NFC, and if they stay there, will clinch a first week playoff bye and homefield advantage. Behind them by one game are the Eagles, who have a challenging matchup in the Steelers this week, but play the Commanders, Cowboys, and Giants to end the season, all games they should win, the last two easily. The Lions end the season with the Bears, 49ers, and Vikings, all games that are very winnable, but don’t feel like locks in the same way.
The Bills now sit in second place in the AFC, two games behind the Chiefs, and just need to keep winning games if they want to get the first place spot. Normally, to be behind two games this late in the season versus a team you aren’t playing again could feel a bit out of reach, but Buffalo still feels very much in this. The Bills have an easy schedule coming up—the Patriots, Jets, and then the Patriots again—but the Chiefs play the Texans, Steelers, and Broncos, all likely playoff teams. With how thin the margin of victory has been for Kansas City this season, any game feels losable for them.
Who will win:
The Lions are slight favorites here, but there is a part of me that leans Bills here. Buffalo is coming off of a brutal loss to the Rams last week that involved both a defensive meltdown (they allowed 44 points) and incoherent clock management decisions by head coach Sean McDermott that may have lost them the game. They’re looking for revenge. Give me Buffalo, but I want every player on the Lions to know that they tried their best and that ultimately that is what matters most.
The “Let’s Act Like Everything Is Fine” Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (11-2), Sunday 4:25pm EST
Setting the Stakes:
Despite being an in-state rivalry, there isn’t much of a storied history between these two Pennsylvanian teams. They have only played each other twice since 2020, winning one apiece, and with the exception of a hilarious touchdown celebration that AJ Brown got hit with a taunting penalty for two seasons ago, there haven’t really been many high-intensity moments between the Yinzers.
Thankfully, where intra-team conflict is low, inter-team drama is as high as it's been all season for the Eagles. Had it not been for a brutal dropped touchdown pass by Carolina wide receiver Xavier Legette last Sunday, Philadelphia very well could’ve lost to the Panthers in a game they never seemed to quite find their rhythm during. After their 22-16 win, reporters described the mood in the locker room as solemn and relieved, the kind of reaction one expects when a team with Super Bowl ambitions loses to a team that may be in the running for the first overall draft pick.
When asked about what went wrong for the Eagles, particularly offensively, star receiver AJ Brown responded simply: “Passing.” Brown is correct—Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts ended his third consecutive game with less than 200 yards—and he’s particularly struggled to get in sync with Brown, a connection that in seasons pass has been the engine for the offense. He only had the ball thrown his way four times on Sunday, where he made four catches for 43 yards and no scores. After a three-and-out, Brown was seen slamming his helmet on the sideline in frustration. Brown is probably right about the passing game being the central issue for the Eagles at the moment, but the general attitude most players, particularly those on winning teams, are expected to take is one of personal reflection.
This comment may have gone unnoticed to people who don’t follow the Eagles closely, but the situation escalated this week after Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham was asked about Philadelphia’s offensive woes on a local sports radio show. “I know 1 [Hurts] is trying and 11 [Brown] could be better with how he responds to things. They were friends, but things have changed.” Graham went on to say, “They was friends before this. But things have changed, and I understand that because life happens. But we've gotta—it's the business side that we have to make sure that we don't let the personal get in the way of the business.
This is sort of a wild thing for any player to say about any of their teammates, and particularly a longtime veteran like Graham who has no reputation for the dramatics. Graham very quickly apologized for the comments, clarifying that he mischaracterized the situation and shouldn’t have spoken on it. I’m not privy to any of the interpersonal dynamics between Hurts and Brown, and of course, it is possible that Graham isn’t either, but the fact that he even went out of his way to say something like this suggests that it’s more likely there’s something going on there than not. Even if Graham totally misread what was going on between his quarterback and star receiver, you don’t just pull perceived interpersonal conflict out of thin air and relay it to the media.
Brown has since spoken to the media, saying that he and Hurts are “good,” and that his comment about the poor passing game was not a dig at his quarterback specifically. It’s possible that this story may just be a one-week hiccup, but given the fact that the Eagles suffered a late-season meltdown last year, there’s an added sense of worry for this team specifically when it comes to December drama.
The Stakes:
I talked about the Eagles enough already here, so you can refer to how I broke down where the Lions are at to understand the stakes for the Eagles here. Tl;dr: keep winning games, maybe get the number one seed in the NFC.
The Steelers are more or less locked into a playoff spot, and now it just comes down to whether they get there by winning the AFC North, or via Wild Card. At present, Pittsburgh is two games up on the Ravens in their division, but faces an absolute gauntlet to end the year—the Ravens in Baltimore, the Chiefs and the Bengals. Aside from playing the Steelers themselves, Baltimore ends the season with the Texans and Browns, neither a walk in the park, but both teams the Ravens should be able to best.
Baltimore plays the Italian-American-Rudy-led New York Giants on Sunday, and if they lose to them, they will have far more concerns than whether or not they will win the division. In the very real possibility that the Ravens win and the Steelers lose this week, the Ravens could be playing for the top of the division with a win against the Steelers next week and a much easier schedule to round out their year. If Pittsburgh wants breathing room, they’ll need to find a way to beat Philly.
Who Will Win:
On an emotional level, I feel that however the Eagles respond to this week of drama is going to be the tea leaves on how the rest of this season is going to go for them. More likely than not, I think that they’ll overcome it—I see this being a big game for AJ Brown. It’s possible that their relationship may be more like a couple staying together to keep up a good face before their kids go to college, but hey, if it works, it works. Give me Philly, and a beautiful make-up hug and kiss.
The “Basically a Playoff Game” Bowl
Indianapolis Colts (6-7) at Denver Broncos (8-5), Sunday 4:25pm EST
Setting the Scene:
As we prepare for Week 15 to kick off, I think it’s worth putting out there that this has been a notably uneventful playoff race across the NFL, particularly in the AFC. The Chiefs and the Bills have already locked in their division wins, leaving only the AFC North and South up for grabs.
In the North, the Steelers, as mentioned previously, are two games ahead of the Ravens, and while it’s still possible that the division winner may come down to the wire, both teams are more or less locks for the postseason. In the South, the Texans are two games ahead of the Colts. Houston seemed like an almost sure thing to win the division, and while that still feels like the likeliest outcome, they have a very tough schedule remaining so that Indianapolis could, in theory, make a push.
Regardless of how these last two divisions shake out, either the Steelers or the Ravens are basically guaranteed to take one of the three Wild Card spots remaining. At 8-5, the Chargers are also looking very likely to find their way to the postseason—they have the same record as division rival Denver, but have already beaten them head-to-head. Assuming the Chargers don’t have a late-season Charger-ing, this means that there is only really one spot left in the AFC playoff race. The two teams most likely to take that spot? The Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos.
The Stakes:
If the regular season ended today, the Broncos would be on their way to the playoffs in the seventh and final seed. This season has been a good story for the Broncos, who had relatively low expectations going in, and found success through a strong defense and surprising production from rookie quarterback Bo Nix. They aren’t a Super Bowl contender, but they can feel proud of what they’ve done. With a win, their current 75% chance odds to make the postseason jump to 89%. With a loss, however, that number drops to 48%, as that would put them a game behind both the Chargers, because they lost to them, and the Colts as well.
48% isn’t a death sentence, but Denver faces a real uphill battle. Their final three games are against the Chargers, the Bengals, and the Chiefs, a stretch they could easily go 3-0 to. The Colts, on the other hand, play arguably the three worst teams in football moving forward—the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars.
Despite the rosier outlook for Indianapolis, if they lose this game, they would fall three games behind the Broncos, bringing their playoff odds to 7%, more or less taking them out of contention. It’s been a long season for Indianapolis, laden with drama over the benching and un-benching of second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. More than just the mathematical dramatics of this game are the emotional ones for this team. The Colts, similar to the Broncos, won’t be poised to make a playoff run if they do manage to win this game and find their way to the postseason. However, if Anthony Richardson is able to lock in and win this game with the season on the line, it would be a huge boost of confidence to the entire franchise that this is a player that they can continue to grow with.
Who Will Win:
This may just be the fact that I am rooting for Anthony Richardson, and I’m thinking wishfully about an exciting end-of-year race for the Wild Card and potentially the AFC South, but I think that Colts may just figure out a way to win this with their season on the line. They’re coming off of a bye week, and have what they need to beat this talented but imperfect Broncos team. For the shoe, let’s do this.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend! Go be a Bad Sport This Week!!!!!!