NFL Week 11 Preview: Call Me Allen
On White Wales, white guys who can sling it, and the limitations of good vibes.
This is a wonderful slate of NFL football coming for us this weekend, and I’ve previewed three games that we’d be lucky to any one of on a normal week. I’m practically jumping out of my office chair!!
As always, please share and subscribe if you haven’t so I can keep smiling as I use my days off to write these, and you can keep enjoying them. Lots of love!
Thursday Night Football in Review Haiku
Jayden has cooled down,
The Eagles are heating up,
Philly is in it.
Eagles defeat Commanders, 26-18
The Big Game: The White Whale of Western New York
Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Buffalo Bills (8-2), Sunday 4:25pm EST
Setting the Scene:
Call me Allen. Some years ago—never mind how long precisely—Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs became perhaps the singular figure most responsible for the suffering of modern-day Buffalo Bills fans. Bills fans have been through a lot, and as a fan of the worst franchise in professional sports, I don’t empathize with other fanbases often. But as a daughter of Upstate New York with a fondness for cities like Buffalo that have no real business having their own NFL team, it’s hard for me not to have a softness for the Bills.
I’m no historian of the Bills franchise, I’m versed enough to know that in the early nineties, the Bills went to four Super Bowls in a row and lost them all. The first loss of that stretch, and perhaps the most traumatic, was a 19-20 loss to the New York Giants, sealed by a field goal that drifted wide right—two words that continue to haunt every Bills fan I know, including those who were not alive during that time.
While I can’t really put into context how specifically traumatic as a fan of a team that stretch would be, I have been able to watch in real-time how the Buffalo Bills of the past four years—regular contenders thanks to the spectacular play of quarterback Josh Allen—have been foiled of their Super Bowl aspirations time and time again by one Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Since 2020, the Bills and the Chiefs have met thrice in the playoffs, with Kansas City coming out victorious each time.
The most storied moment of this rivalry came in 2021 in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs, a game so singular that it literally has its own Wikipedia page. The game was a quarterback masterclass between the two best passers in the league, each throwing over 300 yards, three or more touchdowns, and no turnovers.
The Bills scored on their opening drive, but did not regain the lead again until the fourth quarter, when Allen through a go-ahead touchdown with under two minutes remaining on the clock. Mahomes then responded by throwing a 64-yard touchdown to regain the lead with less than minute remaining, but when Allen got the ball again, he threw another touchdown pass and the Bills went on top 36-33, with only 13 seconds remaining on the clock. Then, in the eponymous drive of what is now often referred to as “The Thirteen Second Game,” Mahomes drove the ball down the field in two throws to get the team in field goal range, where Harrison “Heritage Foundation” Butker kicked a 49-yard field goal to send the game into overtime. Kansas City won the coin toss, got the ball, and promptly scored a touchdown, which ended the game in overtime rules.
This game proved so significant that it actually prompted the NFL to change the overtime rules for playoffs. Where it had been that if any team scored a touchdown the game would end, now if a team scores a touchdown in the first possession of overtime, the other team has a chance to score one themselves before it becomes sudden-death. It’s easy to understand why they did this if you watched the Thirteen Second Game live as I did. With each Kansas City yard gained, the camera flashed to Allen sitting nervously on the sideline. After such an incredible performance in a game with four lead changes and 25 points scored in the final two minutes of regulation, it felt criminal not to give Allen the chance to respond.
The Bills won the next two meetings between the teams, though crucially, they were only regular season games. Last year’s first game ended 20-17 in Buffalo’s favor, however a fair but ticky-tack penalty against wide receiver Kadarious Toney took away a touchdown that would’ve put Kansas City on top with very little time left. After the game, when Allen and Mahomes went to shake hands in the middle, a clearly heated Mahomes was overheard saying to Allen: “That was the worst fucking call I’ve ever seen” about the Toney penalty. Mahomes later apologized for this behavior, but it stuck with a lot of fans. It’s one thing to be frustrated about a call that didn’t go your way, it’s another to say it to your opponent as if to invalidate their win.
The next time these two met, and the last time they’ve seen each other, was in last season’s AFC Divisional Game. While not as electric as the 2021 meeting, it remained close through the final quarter. Down three with 1:47 left, the Bills drove down the field to set kicker Tyler Bass up for a 44-yard field goal to tie it up. He missed, wide right.
The Stakes:
Like any rivalry game, the stakes are both practical (this will affect playoff seeding) and emotional (Mahomes creating generational trauma for people who have access to Tim Horton’s). Something that is perhaps telling is that while this rivalry feels central to the story of the Josh Allen Bills, it doesn’t hold the same level of intrigue to Kansas City and their fans. For the Chiefs, their major rival of the Mahomes era has been Joe Burrow and the Bengals, the only team to successfully beat them in the playoffs.
The Bills have beaten the Chiefs in the regular three times now, so winning this game wouldn’t necessarily be shaking any demons that haven’t been exorcised yet. Still, the Chiefs remain somewhat improbaby undefeated. Wiith a win here, they all but have the number one seed in the AFC locked up, securing not only home team advantage in the Divisional round but a crucial bye week. No one outside of Kansas City wants the Chiefs in the Super Bowl again, and anything anyone does to amke to make the playoffs harder would be welcomed.
Who Will Win:
Despite the fact that the Chiefs have not lost a game this year, the Bills are the betting favorite going into this one. This on some level makes sense to me. The Bills have a worse record and aren’t notably having any better of a statistical season, but on the eye test alone feel like the better team. Perhaps most notably, Josh Allen is outplaying Mahomes statistically and very possibly on film as well. Mahomes, for what it’s worth, hasn’t been asked to do much as his defense has been so effective this season, but it’s not your typical lights-out QB1 kind of year for him.
The Bills are currently down two key pass catchers in Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman, and it’s likely that wide receiver Amari Cooper will be out as well. I don’t see this Chiefs team remaining undefeated through the regular season, and I think this Bills team at full strength could be the one to take them down. However, I’ve made my peace with the Chiefs ultimate destiny, and I’ll stay on the side of devil magic until someone gives me a good reason to think otherwise.
What Game to Watch If…
You Want to Know if Vibes Alone Can Be Enough
Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2), Sunday 1:00 pm EST
In last week’s recap, I declared the Pittsburgh Steelers as the official Vibes Team of the season. A Vibes Team is a team that was never expected to be particularly bad, not a Cinderella story, but rather a team that seems to be consistently playing at or above their potential to become a real contender. At 7-2, the Steelers are improbably leading a competitive AFC North, thanks largely to a surprising return to form from quarterback Russell Wilson.
If one ever wanted to test the true powers of a Vibes Team, this upcoming game between the Steelers and the Ravens for the top spot in the division is a great place to start. The Ravens are favored in this game by three points, though considering that the Steelers are playing at home, that line reflects an understanding that Baltimore is the better of the two teams. On paper and on film, that feels true to me. If quarterbacks across the league continue playing at the level that they currently are, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson feels like a near lock for MVP, his second in a row and third all-time (he is 27!!!!!). The combination of his play and the addition of Derrick Henry has made this Ravens offense operatic—powerful, beautiful, able to switch on a dime. It will be an intriguing matchup to see this unit play the Steelers defense, who have been among the cream of the crop this year.
The real test here, though, is going to be the Steelers offense versus the Ravens defense. After an almost generationally good Baltimore defense last year, the Ravens have been among the most moveable objects in the league. Against the pass, they rank dead last. Defensive production isn’t as sticky year-to-year as offensive is, and they lost their very talented coordinator who took a head coaching job in the offseason. They’re also down Kyle Hamilton, their best defensive player, and also Bad Sport Newsletter’s Sexiest Man Alive (reports are suggesting he may play in this game).
(Eat your heart out, John Krasinski)
If the Steelers defense is able to hold off this electric Ravens team, and if Russell Wilson is able to moon-ball his way over the struggling Baltimore defense, then it’s hard for me to see any reason to think that Pittsburgh aren’t legit Super Bowl contenders this year. My money is on the Ravens, though. For all of the good juju in Pittsburgh, I know better than to root against Action Jackson.
You Want to Hear Commentators Say the Phrase “They Just Do Things the Right Way” For Three Hours
Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-3), Sunday 8:20 pm EST
In some ways, the Bengals and the Chargers have had almost completely opposite seasons up until this point. Since they initially dropped to an 0-3 start, the Bengals failure to find a winning record has been the talk of the town, largely because Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense have been remarkable this year. Burrow has thrown the most passing yards of any quarterback this season, is tied for the most touchdowns at 24, and has thrown only four interceptions. Against the Ravens last Thursday Night, he threw for four touchdowns, no interceptions, 428 yards, and still lost to Baltimore by a point.
Some of this has been some bad luck. With the exception of an outlier first-week loss to the Patriots, all of the games Cincinnati has lost thus far have been against very good teams, and most have been quite close. They lost to both Baltimore and Kansas City by one point and dropped their first game to Baltimore in overtime. Lots of blame has been appointed to the defense, who have admittedly been pretty bad this year, but I wouldn’t describe losing close games to great teams as a full-blown failure on their part.
If even just one of these games bounced their way, Cincinnati would be in a much more comfortable position. Unfortunately, at 4-6 and sharing a division the Ravens and the Steelers, every game from this point out is more or less a must-win. None, however, holds more stakes than this upcoming matchup against the Chargers, who currently occupy a precious Wild Card spot. If the Bengals win this game, they are given a 46% chance to make it to the playoffs—not great, but still very much in it. If they lose, that number falls to 16%.
If you are a regular reader but not as much of a close follower of the NFL, you may be scratching your head right now. The Chargers? Whom? And that would be fair. I haven’t talked much about the Los Angeles Chargers this year because they ultimately just haven’t played in many interesting games, nor were there particularly high expectations for the team. They’ve quietly won six games, but the only team with a winning record they’ve beaten is the Broncos—like I said, the opposite of the Bengals, who are quite loudly losing against a tough schedule.
However, one key similarity between these two teams is a very high level of quarterback play, as Justin Herbert of the Chargers has begun to come alive in the past few weeks. Herbert has quite literally always been good—he broke numerous rookie records in 2020 after being drafted sixth overall. He wasn’t even expected to be the starter that year, but found out mere minutes before the second game of the year that starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s lung had been accidentally punctured by a team doctor, and it was showtime. In that game, Herbert threw for 311 yards and took the Chiefs to overtime. Since then, he’s been considered one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league.
If you’re wondering why you’ve maybe never heard much about Herbert considering why he’s so good, I’d point in you in the direction of that truly bizarre Tyrod Taylor incident—the Chargers are a famously cursed team. In this article wherein an astrologer was tasked with trying to understand what specifically has gone wrong in the spiritual realm in Los Angeles, you can read through the bizarre, improbable losses that the Chargers have continued to have over and over again. Herbert has been a top-five quarterback for the past few seasons, but the Chargers haven’t been good enough to make any real noise.
Enter Jim Harbaugh. Fresh off of a national championship run with his beloved alma mater, the University of Michigan, Harbaugh returned to the NFL, where he’d last been the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers before he left for the college ranks. Harbaugh (and his brother, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh), is as respected as they come among coaches—beloved among players, proven as a winner. He’s also an eccentric personality, known for things like his love of Judge Judy (he’s been to live tapings) and milk.
Harbaugh entered the Chargers facility, and based off of everything we’ve seen, seems to have totally changed the vibes there. He loves Justin Herbert, and the famously reserved quarterback seems to share the affection. A defensive-minded coach, Harbuagh’s Chargers currently have one of the top-ranked defenses in the league. There is still a lot to go as far as acquiring talent in Los Angeles, but it really feels like the Chargers have something going. They face a tough schedule moving forward—the Bengals, Ravens, Falcons and Chiefs over the next four weeks—and that should help clarify if this team has been coasting on an easy schedule or if they may be actual contenders.
I’m excited to watch this game (it was flexed into Primetime over Jets-Colts, which is the first sign of God’s mercy I’ve seen in weeks) because it’s fun to watch two great quarterbacks dueling it out. I honestly wish both of these lovely teams could win. But I’ll give it to the back-against-the-wall Bengals, both because I have Jamarr Chase on my fantasy team, and because this season is more fun these tigers are still hunting for a playoff seed.
hhhhappppyyyy weekend! thanks for reading :)
Who are you kidding? Primetime or not, you'll still be watching the Jets.** That's what Jets fans are fated to do. And they might even win.
** Assuming you still live in their home TV market